In recent decades, the water crisis in the Middle East has evolved from a purely environmental issue into a complex security and geopolitical challenge, undermining national sovereignty, regional stability, and international relations. This study aims to analyze the strategic dimensions and political consequences of the water crisis and to propose a framework for sustainable cooperation in the management of shared water resources.
The central research questions are: What is the relationship between the water crisis and the redefinition of national security and regional order in the Middle East? And what scenarios can be envisioned for the future of geopolitical relations among countries in the region?
Employing a descriptive-analytical approach, the study uses multi criteria decision making methods (AHP, ANP, TOPSIS) and scenario analysis based on Shell models and morphological analysis to explore the crisis from hydro-political, climatic, security, and institutional perspectives.
The findings reveal that in the face of structurally ineffective international legal regimes and the instrumentalization of water diplomacy as a tool of geopolitical leverage, upstream countries are imposing water hegemony on downstream states through dam construction and data control.
The research identifies the water crisis as a major driver of ethnic and sectarian fault lines, climate-induced migration, and geo strategic divergence. In this context, redefining water governance as a foundational element of national security and a source of soft power alongside regional institution-building, technological advancement, multi layered diplomacy, and information transparency is the only viable pathway to achieving sustainable water security.
The proposed model, based on multi-level governance, binding legal frameworks, and multilateral dispute resolution mechanisms, offers a strategic blueprint for transitioning from conflict prone hydro hegemony to geostrategic cooperation.