Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs

Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs

The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Strengthening the Economic and Political Cooperation Model Between Tehran and Beijing

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Leyla Ghaffar Zadeh 1
Kayhan Barzegar 2
Majid Tavasoli Rokn abadi 3
1 Department of Political Science and International Relations, Islamic Azad University Research and Science branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of International Relations, Faculty of Law, Theology and Political Science, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor of International Relations at the Faculty of Law, Theology and Political Science, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/irfa.2025.518026.1283
Abstract
This dissertation investigates the impact of the US-China trade war on regional and international cooperation patterns, with a specific focus on Iran-China relations. The ongoing rivalry between the United States and China, the world's two largest economies, extends beyond trade and into geopolitical and diplomatic realms, reshaping alliances and economic strategies across the globe. Among the countries influenced by this global shift, Iran presents a compelling case study due to its ongoing economic isolation from the West, largely driven by US sanctions. This research seeks to explore how the US-China trade war has created opportunities for Iran and China to deepen their bilateral ties and develop alternative cooperation models at both regional and international levels.
The importance of this study lies in its ability to shed light on how economic conflicts between superpowers can inadvertently generate strategic opportunities for other states. By analysing the political and economic dynamics between Iran and China in the aftermath of the trade war, this research contributes to a broader understanding of shifting global power structures. The study is guided by the central research question: How has the US-China trade war created opportunities for Iran and China to strengthen regional and international relations and establish new cooperation models? Employing the Hegemonic Stability Theory, it argues that the potential decline in US dominance will catalyse the emergence of new geopolitical alignments, especially in regions where American influence has weakened.
The findings reveal that the trade war has indeed acted as a catalyst for strengthened Iran-China relations. Both nations have strategically capitalised on reduced Western engagement to pursue mutual interests, enhance economic cooperation, and position themselves as key actors in a multipolar world. The study concludes that this evolving partnership exemplifies how geopolitical tensions can lead to new patterns of global cooperation, challenging established power hierarchies.
 
Keywords
Trade war
hegemonic stability
United States
China
Islamic Republic of Iran

Subjects

Article Title Persian

تأثیر جنگ تجاری چین و آمریکا بر تقویت الگوی همکاری های اقتصادی و سیاسی تهران و پکن

Authors Persian

لیلا غفارزاده 1
کیهان برزگر 2
مجید توسلی رکن آبادی 3
2 استاد روابط بین الملل در دانشکده حقوق، الهیات و علوم سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
Abstract Persian

این پایان‌نامه تاثیر جنگ تجاری آمریکا و چین بر الگوهای همکاری منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی را بررسی می‌کند، با تمرکز خاص بر روابط ایران و چین. رقابت جاری بین ایالات متحده و چین، دو اقتصاد بزرگ جهان، فراتر از تجارت و وارد عرصه‌های ژئوپولتیک و دیپلماتیک شده است و در حال بازسازی ائتلاف‌ها و استراتژی‌های اقتصادی در سراسر جهان است. در میان کشورهایی که تحت تأثیر این تغییرات جهانی قرار گرفته‌اند، ایران به دلیل انزوای اقتصادی مداوم از غرب، که عمدتاً به دلیل تحریم‌های آمریکا است، یک مطالعه موردی جالب به شمار می‌آید. این تحقیق در تلاش است تا بررسی کند که چگونه جنگ تجاری آمریکا و چین فرصت‌هایی برای ایران و چین به منظور تقویت روابط دوجانبه خود و توسعه مدل‌های همکاری جایگزین در سطوح منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی ایجاد کرده است.

اهمیت این مطالعه در توانایی آن برای روشن کردن این موضوع است که چگونه درگیری‌های اقتصادی میان ابرقدرت‌ها می‌تواند به طور غیرمستقیم فرصت‌های استراتژیک جدیدی برای کشورهای دیگر ایجاد کند. با تحلیل دینامیک‌های سیاسی و اقتصادی میان ایران و چین پس از جنگ تجاری، این تحقیق به درک گسترده‌تری از ساختارهای قدرت جهانی در حال تغییر کمک می‌کند. سوال اصلی تحقیق به این صورت است: چگونه جنگ تجاری آمریکا و چین فرصت‌هایی برای ایران و چین به منظور تقویت روابط منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی و ایجاد مدل‌های جدید همکاری فراهم کرده است؟ با استفاده از نظریه ثبات هژمونیک، این تحقیق استدلال می‌کند که احتمال کاهش سلطه ایالات متحده، موجب بروز هم‌راستایی‌های جدید ژئوپولتیک خواهد شد، به‌ویژه در مناطقی که نفوذ آمریکا ضعیف شده است.

یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند که جنگ تجاری به‌طور واقعی به‌عنوان یک کاتالیزور برای تقویت روابط ایران و چین عمل کرده است. هر دو کشور به‌طور استراتژیک از کاهش تعاملات غربی بهره‌برداری کرده‌اند تا منافع مشترک خود را دنبال کنند، همکاری‌های اقتصادی را تقویت کنند و خود را به‌عنوان بازیگران اصلی در یک دنیای چندقطبی معرفی کنند. این مطالعه نتیجه‌گیری می‌کند که این شراکت در حال تحول نمونه‌ای از این است که چگونه تنش‌های ژئوپولتیک می‌توانند به الگوهای جدید همکاری جهانی منجر شوند و هیرارشی‌های قدرت موجود را به چالش بکشند.

Keywords Persian

جنگ تجاری
ثبات هژمونیک
ایالات متحده
چین
جمهوری اسلامی ایران
Abbasi Khoshkar, A. (2019). The trade war between China and the United States and its impact on sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran: Possible scenarios and challenges of convergence between Iran and China in global power structures. Strategic Research Institute, Secretariat of the Expediency Council. Retrieved from https://csr.ir/files/fa/news/1398/6/3/ 1860_652.pdf
Aluf, D. (2022, January 11). China’s reliance on Middle East oil, gas to rise sharply. Insights Global. Retrieved from https://www.insights-global.com/chinas-reliance-on-middle-east-oil-gas-to-rise-sharply/
Asisian, N. (2022). Iran, China, and the future world order: Unipolarity or multipolarity? Kenney Papers No. 1. Air University Press.
Belal, K. (2020). China-Iran relations: Prospects and complexities. Policy Perspectives, 17(2), 47–66.
Bozdağlıoğlu, Y. (2013). Hegemonic (in)stability theory and U.S. foreign policy: The legacy of the neocons in the Middle East. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 13(3), 1–12.
Cambridge University. (n.d.). Trade war. Cambridge University Press. Retrieved January 14, 2021, from https://www.dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/trade-war
Cox, R. W. (1987). Production, power, and world order: Social forces in the making of history. Columbia University Press.
Eslami, M. & Papageorgiou, M. (2023, June 2). China’s increasing role in the Middle East: Implications for regional and international dynamics. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs. Retrieved from https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2023/06/02/ chinas-increasing-role-in-the-middle-east-implications-for-regional-and-international-dynamics/
Eurasianet. (2023). China eyes Iran as important Belt and Road hub. Retrieved from https://eurasianet.org/china-eyes-iran-as-important-belt-and-road-hub
Fadlon, T. & Zimmt, R. (2024, August 27). Growing but limited: Iranian economic relations with China. INSS Insight, No. 1890. Retrieved from https://www.inss.org.il/publication/china-iran-economy/
Fan, H. (2011). China’s policy options towards Iran. Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 5(1), 45–60.
Ghorbani, V.; Pakdel Majd, M. & Alioour, M. (2021). An Analysis of China's Military Diplomacy towards Iran. Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, 12(33), 279-305. doi: 10.22034/irfa.1999.145358
Guo, M.; Lu, L.; Sheng, L. & Yu, M. (2018). The day after tomorrow: Evaluating the burden of Trump’s trade war. Asian Economic Papers, 17(1), 101–120. https://doi.org/ 10.1162/asep_a_00592
Harold, S. W. & Nader, A. (2012). China and Iran: Economic, political, and military relations. RAND Corporation.
Holmquist & Englund (2023). China and Iran. World Population Review. Retrieved from https://worldpopulationreview.com/ country-rankings/oil-reserves-by-country
Iran Daily (2024). Iran, China trade volume exceeds $14.6b in 2023. Retrieved from https://newspaper.irandaily.ir/7493/2/7273
Izadi, F. & Khodaee, E. (2017). The Iran factor in U.S.-China relations: Guarded engagement vs. soft balancing. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 3(2), 315.
Keohane, R. O. & Nye, J. S. (1977). Power and interdependence: World politics in transition. Little, Brown.
Keohane, R. O. (1984). After hegemony: Cooperation and discord in the world political economy. Princeton University Press.
Khajavi, F.; Soleimani Poorlak, F. A. & Salehi Farsani, H. A. (2022). The convergence of Iran and China in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative based on the theory of mutual dependence. New Perspectives in Human Geography, 15(1), 57.
Kindleberger, C. P. (1973). The world in depression 1929–1939. University of California Press.
Madani, S. (2022). Beyond geopolitics: A geoeconomic perspective of China-Iran Belt and Road Initiative relations. Uluslararası İlişkiler / International Relations, 19(74), 53–72.
Mehr News Agency. (2024, January 23). Tehran-Beijing trade tops $14.6 billion in 2023: Customs data. Retrieved from https://en.mehrnews.com/news/211181/Tehran-Beijing-trade-tops-14-6-billion-in-2023-customs-data
Observatory of Economic Complexity. (2022). Iran and China. Retrieved from https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateralcountry/ chn/partner/irn?dynamicBilateralTradeSelector=year2020&dynamicProductBalanceYearSelector=year2020&dynamicYearGeomapSelector=year2020&productSpaceYearSelector=year2020
Reisinezhad, A. (2020). Iran’s Geopolitical Strategy in the West Asia: Containment of ‘Geography’ and ‘History’. Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, 11(31), 59-88.
Reuters. (2025, April 16). US issues new sanctions targeting Chinese importers of Iranian oil. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us-issues-new-sanctions-targeting-chinese-importers-iranian-oil-2025-04-16/
Stanzel, A. (2022, February 21). China’s path to geopolitics (Research Paper 2022/RP 05). German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Statista. (2023). U.S. trade in goods with China since 1985. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/chart/17982/us-trade-in-goods-with-china-since-1985/
Stocklytics. (2024). US-China trade deficit shrinks by 25% to $279B, hitting lowest point since 2010. Retrieved from https://stocklytics.com/content/us-china-trade-deficit-shrinks-by-25-to-279b-hitting-lowest-point-since-2010/
Tabatabaei, S. M. & Jiang Bo, S. (2018). Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and Regional Integration in the Middle East. Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, 9(28), 139-160.
Tasnim News Agency. (2024, January 23). Tehran-Beijing trade reaches $14.6 billion in 2023: Customs data. Retrieved from https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2024/01/23/3027565/tehran-beijing-trade-reaches-14-6-billion-in-2023-customs-data
Teer, J., & Wang, S. (2018). Sino-Iranian asymmetrical interdependence in light of the Iran nuclear issue. Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 12(2), 169.
The Iran Primer. (2023, June 28). Iran & China: A trade lifeline. United States Institute of Peace. Retrieved from https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/jun/28/iran-china-trade-lifeline
Tofik, R. (2023). China’s rise and U.S.–Iran standoff: An American perspective. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 9(1–4), 107–126.
U.S. Census Bureau. (2020). U.S. Census Bureau economic indicators. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2020
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2019). The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php? id=39932
Workman, D. (2023). China’s top trading partners. World’s Top Exports. Retrieved from https://www.worldstopexports.com/ chinas-top-import-partners/; China remains Iran’s largest trade partner for ten consecutive years. Financial Tribune. Retrieved February 18, 2023, from https://financialtribune.com/ articles/domestic-economy/117145/china-remains-irans-largest-trade-partner-for-ten-consecutive-years
World Population Review. (2023). Natural gas by country 2023. Retrieved from https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/natural-gas-by-country

  • Receive Date 20 March 2024
  • Revise Date 19 April 2024
  • Accept Date 23 July 2024