Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs

Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs

Future Scenarios of the Iran-Saudi Rapprochement: an Iranian View

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 PhD Candidate, Department of Regional Studies (Middle East), Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Regional Studies (Middle East), Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Due to different interests, ideologies, and geopolitical goals, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have long been in competition, which occasionally got severe. After a seven-year rupture, on March 10, 2023, the two states agreed to restore diplomatic relations to reduce tensions. This research examines the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and tries to answer this question: what are the future scenarios of the Iran-Saudi Arabia rapprochement? To tackle the question, this research tends to analyze the Iranian-Saudi relationship and shed light on the future scenarios of the deal from an Iranian perspective. Three scenarios are presented: the first one is the cynical one and pays attention to challenges and the driving forces that can deteriorate the present de-escalated relations. The second scenario considers the positive potentialities of the deal and the situation it can make for more stability and peace. The third one regards both elements of tension and compatibility. Ultimately, the third scenario is considered the most logical one based on the framework presented as the Balance of Interests.
Keywords

Subjects


Article Title Persian

نگاهی ایرانی به سناریوهای آینده توافق ایران و عربستان

Authors Persian

زهرا اکبری 1
سید عبدالامیر نبوی 2
1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مطالعات منطقه ای (خاورمیانه)، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار، گروه مطالعات منطقه ای (خاورمیانه)، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
Abstract Persian

جمهوری اسلامی ایران و پادشاهی سعودی به دلیل منافع، ایدئولوژی‌ها و اهداف ژئوپلیتیکی متفاوت، در طول زمان‌های گذشته در رقابت با یکدیگر قرار داشته‌اند که گاهی شاهد تشدید آن و تبدیل آن به درگیری و نزاع بوده‌ایم. پس از هفت سال قطع کامل روابط دیپلماتیک میان آن‌ها، دو کشور در دهم مارس 2023 توافق کردند تا روابط دیپلماتیک خود را برای کاهش تنش از سر بگیرند. این پژوهش ضمن بررسی مصالحه ایران و عربستان سعودی در صدد پاسخ به این سوال است که سناریوهای آینده توافق صلح ایران و عربستان سعودی چیست؟ برای پاسخ به این سوال، این پژوهش به بررسی وضعیت ایران و عربستان پرداخته و سناریوهای محتمل آینده این توافق را از منظری ایرانی مورد کاوش قرار می‌دهد . در این مجال سه سناریو معرفی شده است: سناریوی اول بدبینانه است و به چالش‌ها و نیروهای محرکه‌ای توجه می‌کند که می‌توانند روابط تنش‌زدایی کنونی را بدتر کنند. سناریوی دوم پتانسیل های مثبت توافق و وضعیتی را که می تواند برای ثبات و صلح بیشتر ایجاد کند، در نظر می گیرد. مورد سوم به هر دو عنصر تنش و سازگاری مربوط می شود. در نهایت، سناریوی سوم بر اساس چارچوب ارائه شده موازنه منافع، منطقی‌ترین سناریو در نظر گرفته می‌شود.

Keywords Persian

ایران
عربستان سعودی
توافق
سناریوهای آینده
موازنه منافع
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  • Receive Date 03 June 2024
  • Revise Date 11 July 2024
  • Accept Date 22 July 2024