China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: Likely Challenges for India

Document Type : Original Article

Author

PhD in intonational studies

Abstract

The recent geopolitical transformations that have seen a strengthening of India-U.S. bilateral relations along with strained U.S.-Iran and U.S.-China ties have pushed India into a difficult strategic position with Iran.  Along with the heightened India-China tensions, the proposed China-Iran deal gives China more leverage with Iran, impacting India’s long-term strategic economic relations with the latter. The recent agreements and partnership between Iran and China reflected in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the draft 25- year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) will pave the way for long-term strategic cooperation between the two countries. The agreement per se and the growing closer ties between Beijing and Tehran can have challenges for India's relations with Iran and interests in the Persian Gulf region. Nonetheless, it is unlikely to affect India-Iran bilateral ties that remain robust seriously and has withstood challenges earlier, and the comprehensive strategic partnership shall not be an exception. India’s stake in the situation hinges on its interest in Iranian natural gas reserves and its desire for continued participation in the Chabahar port project with Iran. With the deal now inked and considering India’s changing geopolitical and security environment vis-a-vis China, what are the key implications of the China-Iran pact for India? How can New Delhi respond to Beijing’s major drive to support Tehran?

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: Likely Challenges for India

Author [Persian]

  • قدرت الله بهبودی نژاد
Abstract [Persian]

The recent geopolitical transformations that have seen a strengthening of India-U.S. bilateral relations along with strained U.S.-Iran and U.S.-China ties have pushed India into a difficult strategic position with Iran.  Along with the heightened India-China tensions, the proposed China-Iran deal gives China more leverage with Iran, impacting India’s long-term strategic economic relations with the latter. The recent agreements and partnership between Iran and China reflected in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the draft 25- year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) will pave the way for long-term strategic cooperation between the two countries. The agreement per se and the growing closer ties between Beijing and Tehran can have challenges for India's relations with Iran and interests in the Persian Gulf region. Nonetheless, it is unlikely to affect India-Iran bilateral ties that remain robust seriously and has withstood challenges earlier, and the comprehensive strategic partnership shall not be an exception. India’s stake in the situation hinges on its interest in Iranian natural gas reserves and its desire for continued participation in the Chabahar port project with Iran. With the deal now inked and considering India’s changing geopolitical and security environment vis-a-vis China, what are the key implications of the China-Iran pact for India? How can New Delhi respond to Beijing’s major drive to support Tehran?

Keywords [Persian]

  • Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
  • China-Iran Relations
  • India
  • Belt and Road Initiative

References

  • #

    • Andersen, L.E. (2019). China, The Middle East and the Reshaping of Word order; The Case of Iran, Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), Copenhagen, DIIS Working Paper No. 2019:14. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10419/227722
    • Asef, S. (2020). “India-Iran Relations: A Comprehensive Review”, Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM). Retrieved from https://iramcenter.org/en/india-iran-relations-a-comprehensive-review Azad, S. (2017). Iran and China: A new approach to their bilateral relations. Rowman & Littlefield
    • Azish, M., & Parviz, S. (2016, February 6). Development of strategic Chabahar Port speeds up. Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). Retrieved from http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81951586.
    • Bagherinia, N. (2019). China or India? A choice of Iran based on interests. From https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333933878
    • Belal, K. (2021). China-Iran Relations: Prospects and Complexities, Policy Perspectives. 2020, Vol. 17, No. 2 (2020), pp. 47-66 Published by: Pluto Journals.Retrived from https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.13169/polipers.17.2.004
    • Bilgrami, M. (2020). Implications of the Iran-China Deal on India. The Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM), Retrieved from https://iramcenter.org/en/implications-of-the-iran-china-deal-on-india.
    • Blumenthal, D. (2018). Economic Coercion as a Tool in China’s Grand Strategy. Statement before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy, July 24, 2018. https://www.foreign.senate
    • Calabrese, J., Etheshami, A., & Horesh, N. (Eds.). (2018). China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative: Envisioning Iran’s role. In China’s Presence in the Middle East: The Implications of the One Belt, One Road Initiative (pp. 174–191). Routledge
    • Chari, S. (2 April, 2021). New China-Iran pact brings a headache for India. It’s not just another international deal, The Print, https://theprint.in/opinion/new-china-iran-pact-brings-a-headache-for-india-its-not-just-another-international-deal/632552/.
    • Chaudhury, D. R. (2016, June 30). India eye's role for itself at Oman’s strategic Duqm port. The Economic Times. Retrieved from http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign- trade/india-eyesc-duqm-               port/articleshow/52981689.cms
    • Dorraj, M. (2016). The future of Sino-Iran relations. In N. Horesh (Ed.), Toward well-oiled relations? (pp. 206–215). Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Dorraj, M. (2020). The Belt and Road Initiative and China’s relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia: A delicate balancing act. In A. Chong & P. Q. Minh (Eds.), Critical reflections on China’s belt & road initiative (pp. 125–138). Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Dhyeyaias (2021). China-Iran Relations and India's Concerns - Daily Current Affair Article for UPSC, IAS, Civil Services and State PCS Examinations. https://www.dhyeyaias.com/current-affairs/articles/china-iran-relations-and-indias-concerns.
    • Duggal, Mahima (2021), “What the China-Iran Strategic Cooperation Pact Means for India”, the Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/what-the-china-iran-strategic-cooperation-pact-means-for-india/.
    • Ekhtiari, A. R., & Salehi, K. M. (2018). Political-economic outcomes of development of Iran-China relations in the framework of Look to East policy (2005–2013). Journal of Political Studies, 10(40), 63–102.
    • Fulton, J. (2019). China’s Changing Role in the Middle East, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council, June 2019, Retrieved from https://atlanticcouncil.org/wp- content/uploads/2019/06/Chinas_Changing_Role_in_the_Middle_East.pdf.
    • Gangale, Thomas. (2003). Alliance Theory: Balancing, Bandwagoning, and Détente. San Francisco State University International Relations 720, 1-24.
    • Garver, J. W. (2016). China and Iran: Expanding cooperation under conditions of U.S. domination. In N. Horesh (Ed.), Toward well-oiled relations? (pp. 180–205). Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Garver, J. W. (2006). China and Iran: Ancient partners in a post-imperial world. University of Washington Press.
    • Garlick, J. and Havlova, R. (2020). China’s “Belt and Road” Economic Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf: Strategic Hedging amidst Saudi– Iranian Regional Rivalry. Journal of Current Chinese AffairDOI:10.1177/186810269898706.
    • Goshal, Debalina. (2016, July 7). China Pivots to the Middle East and Iran. Retrieved Feb 16, 2019, from Yale Global online: https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/china-pivots-middle-east-and-iran.
    • UK. (2020). Doing business in Iran: Trade and export guide. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/doing-business-with-iran/frequently-asked-questions-on-doing-business-with-iran.
    • Hillman J. (2018), China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Five Years Later, Statement Before the U.S.- China Economic and Security Review Commission, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/ s3fs public/publication/ts180125_hillman_testimony.pdf? mSTOaqZbgZdRpx4QWoSt1HtIa4fN.
    • Hughes, L. (2015). The energy and strategy of China-Iran relations. Future Directions. http://www.futuredirections.org. au/publication/the-energy-and-strategy-of-China-Iran-relations/.
    • Hoh, A. (2019). China's Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and the Middle East. Digest of Middle East Studies, 28(2), 241–276. https://doi.org/10.1111/dome.12191.
    • International Energy Agency (IEA), (2007). World Energy Outlook 2007 (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), 3.
    • Iranian Petro-Energy Information Network. (2017). Biggest post-JCPOA investors in Abadan refinery. http://www.shana.ir/fa/newsagency/275727.
    • Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). (2021). Corona vaccination in the country will accelerate this week. https://www.irna.ir/news/84374166.
    • Izadi, F., & Khodaee, E. (2017). The Iran factor in US-China relations: Guarded engagement vs. soft balancing. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 3(2), 299–323. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2377740017500105.
    • John W. Garver (2020), China and Iran: Ancient Partners in a Post-Imperial World (Seattle: University of Washington Press,2020), 441-446; Maloney, Iran's Political, 406-4011; Khan and Guo, “China’s,”.
    • Kenderdine, T. (2020). Triple axis: Iran's relations with Russia and China by Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai. The Middle East Journal, 74(1), 143–145.
    • Khalil, O. F. (Ed.). (2019). United States relations with China and Iran: Toward the Asian century. Bloomsbury Publishing.
    • Khan, Z., & Guo, C. (2017). China’s energy driven initiatives with Iran: Implications for the United States. Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 11(4), 15–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/25765949.2017.12023315.
    • Khurana (2018). Gurpreet "China’s ‘String of Pearls’ in the Indian Ocean and Its Security Implications," Strategic Analysis 32, no.1: 1-39.
    • Kharazmi, M. (2016, September 10). Iran, India opens new chapter in relations after JCPOA. Iran Review. Retrieved from http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/Iran-India-Open-New-Chapter-in-Relations-after-JCPOA.ht.
    • Katz, D. (2020). Despite sanctions, China is still doing (some) business with Iran. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlan ticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/despite-sanctions-china-is-still-doing-some-business-with-iran.
    • Kumar (2021), The China-Iran pact is a game changer — Part I. https://www.indianpunchline.com/the-china-iran-pact-is-a-game-changer-part-i/.
    • Lachungpa, P. T. (2016, June 8). Modi’s Iran visit: Significant reorientation of foreign policy —Analysis. Eurasia Review: A Journal of Analysis and News. Retrieved from http://www.meforum .org/1821/delhi-between-tehran-and-washington#_ftn3.
    • Mehrnews (2019). India committed to invest $500m in Chabahar Port. https://en.mehrnews.com/news/143007/India-committed-to-invest-500m-in-Chabahar-Port.
    • Ministry of Roads and Urban Development (MRUD), Islamic Republic of Iran. (2017, January 29). Iran signs $3.2b FDI agreements for Chabahar. Retrieved from http://mrud.ir/en /About/Media/Management-News/DNNArticle-Detail-View/ArticleId/281/Iran-Signs-3–2b-FDI-Agreements-for-Chabahar.
    • Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, (2019), “Assistant Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong Attends the Middle East Security Forum”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, November 27, 2019.
    • Ministry of Culture, Government of India. 2016.Indira Gandhi National Centre for Arts, Ministry of Culture, Government of India, “Project ‘Mausam’—Mausam/Mawsim: Maritime Routes and Cultural Landscapes,” accessed October 25, 2016, http://ignca.nic.in/mausam.htm.
    • Muddassir Q &Lakshmi P. (2021), China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: Likely Challenges for India. Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses.
    • Nejhadi, F. (2016). An elaboration on the Iran-China relations in the path towards and after Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. International Journal Series in Multidisciplinary Research, 2(4), 57–63.
    • Osiewicz, P. (2018a). Iran-China relations revisited: The case of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In R. Fiedler & A. Stelmach (Eds.), Beyond Europe: Politics and change in global and regional affairs (pp. 173–186). Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH.
    • Osiewicz, P. (2018b). The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Implications for Iran-China relations. Przeglad Strategiczny (Strategic Review), 8(11), 221–232. https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2018.1.16
    • Pant, H. V. (2008). India and Iran too close for comfort. In H.V. Pant (Ed.), Contemporary debates in Indian foreign and security policy (pp. 113–129). New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan US.
    • Paraskova, T. (2018). China’s Sinopec looks to make special arrangement for Iranian oil imports. Oil Price. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Sinopec-Looks-To-Make-Special-Arrangement-For-Iranian-OilImports.html.
    • Press Trust of India. (2016b, May 28). Chabahar deal ‘not finished’; Pakistan, China welcome, says Iran. The Indian Express. Retrieved from http://indianexpress.com/article world/world-news/chabahar-deal-port-india-iran-afghanistan-pakistan-china-trilateral-agreement-2822346/.
    • Roshan, C. H., & Deanat, M. (2018). Explaining the place of culture in Iran-China relations. Journal of Political Studies, 10(668), 121–144.
    • Raeisi, Arash (2021). China map for the future world. the world of economy, https://donya-e-eqtesad.com.
    • Ranjan, A. (2015). The China-Pakistan economic corridor: India’s options (No. 10). New Delhi, India: Institute of Chinese Studies.
    • Reuters (2019). Russia, China, Iran Start Joint Naval Drills in Indian Ocean. Reuters, December 27, 2019.
    • M.I.(2020). Unforeseen Trap for India in the Sino-Iran Strategic Partnership”, https://strafasia.com/unforeseen-trap-for-india-in-the-sino-iran-strategic-partnership.
    • Ranjan, R. (2018). Cultural Aspect of Belt and Road Initiative and Project Mausam: Strategy for Engagement, China Academic Journal (CIR) November/December 2017, https://igse.shu.edu.cn/__local/F/46/D6/0A32DE989E15B3FBF9AD93E9C83_7E2E63B1_10BB05.pdf.
    • Rogin, J. (2018). China is reaping the rewards of undermining Trump’s Iran strategy. The Washington Post. Iran strategy/? no redirect=on & utters=.c2e44eb8e843.
    • Roy, M. S. (2012). Iran: India's Gateway to Central Asia, Strategic Analysis, 36:6, 957-975, DOI: 10.1080/09700161.2012.728862.
    • Sahgal, A., & Anand, V. (2010). Strategic environment in central Asia and India. In N. Joshi (Ed.), Reconnecting India and Central Asia: Emerging security and economic dimensions (pp.33–79). Washington, DC: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute: Silk Road Studies Program.
    • Sakhuja, V. (2012). India would have to support UN-Sanctioned operations. Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, 7, 388–395.
    • Schweller, R. (2011). Emerging Powers in an Age of Disorder Global Governance Global Governance 17 285-297.
    • Schweller, Randall L. (1994). Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In. International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 72-107. doi.org/10.2307/2539149.
    • Scita, J. (2019). China-Iran: A complex, seesaw relationship. Italian Institute for International PoliticalStudies(ISPI).https://www.ispionline.it/sites/default/files/pubblicazioni/commentary_scita_08.02.2018.pdf.
    • Scobell A. (2018). Why the Middle East Matters to China, in: China’s Presence in the Middle East: The Implications of the One Belt, One Road Initiative, (eds.) A. Ehteshami, N. Horesh, Routledge,
    • Shariatinia, M., & Azizi, H. (2017). Iran-China cooperation in the silk road economic belt: From strategic understanding to operational understanding. China & World Economy, 25(5), 46–61. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12213.
    • Shariatinia, M., & Azizi, H. (2020). Iran and the Belt and Road Initiative: Amid hope and fear. Journal of Contemporary China, 28(120), 984–994. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2019.1594108.
    • Singh, S., and Singh, B. (2019). Geopolitics of ports: Factoring Iran in India’s counterbalancing strategy for “Sino-Pak Axis”. Journal of Eurasian Studies2019, Vol. 10(2).
    • Singh, Abhijit (2020), “With India-US Badly Coordinated in Indian Ocean, China-Iran Naval Ties Now a Fresh Concern,” The Print, July 31, https://theprint.in/opinion/with-india-usbadly coordinated-in-indian-ocean-china-iran-naval-ties-now-a-fresh-concern/471934/.
    • Small, Andrew (2015), China-Pakistan Axis, (U.K.: C Hurst & Co PublishersLtd, 2015).
    • Tan, F. (2018). Iran oil exports set to drop in August ahead of U.S. sanctions: Data. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crude/iran-oil-exports-set-to-drop-in-august-ahead-of-u-s-sanctions-data-idUSKCN1LD12M.
    • Tasnim. (2021). The text of the 25-year agreement between Iran and China based on the latest changes. https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1400/01/08/2475887.
    • Tishehyar, M. (2011). The dynamism of Iran-India relations:1979–2009. Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, 2, 127–156.
    • S. Energy Information Administration (2018). China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest crude oil importer in 2017”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, December 31, 2018, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37821.
    • S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), (2020). “Country Analysis Executive Summary: China”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 30, 2020, https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/China/china.pdf.
    • Walt, S (1985), ‘Alliance formation and the balance of world power’, International Security, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 3–43.
    • Wang Yi. (2016). “Build a New Type of International Relations Featuring Win-Win Cooperation’, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the People's Republic of China, https://www.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/wjbz_663308/2461_663310/t1376908.shtl.
    • G &Taylore, R. (2021). China-Iran Relations: A Limited but Enduring Strategic Partnership, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Staff research Report, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/China-Iran_Relations.pdf.
    • Yazdani, E. (2007). The dynamics of India’s relations with Iran in the post-cold war era: A geo-political analysis. South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies, 30, 351–368.
    • Yacoubian, Alex (2019), “Iran’s Increasing Reliance on China”, The Iran Primer, September 11, 2019.
    • Zalayat, I. B. A. (2019). Realpolitik and Jihad: The Iranian use of Shiite militias in Syria. Digest of Middle East Studies,28(2), 296–328. https://doi.org/10.1111/dome.12193.
    • Zhao, H. (2014). China’s dilemma on Iran: Between energy security and responsible rising power. Journal of Contemporary China, 23(87), 408–424. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2013.843880.#

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 02 December 2022
  • Accept Date: 02 December 2022

Share

How to cite

Statistics